Sunday, August 19, 2012

CABC Draft Order: A History

With the F. brothers sitting at 1 and 3 respectively, and at the request of a concerned league member, I decided to take a historical look at how the draft order has played out.

Let's take a stroll down memory lane...

In the interest of fairness, I decided to look at two measures of luck: "Luck Factor" and "Distance to 1st"

Luck Factor is an easy indicator to see if you've been more lucky or less lucky than par. Negative scores indicate you've been lucky, positive scores indicate you got screwed.

Distance to 1st is the number of picks you were away in any given year from having the first pick. Lower is better and all scores are positive.

For 2012, the scores look like this:

The data summary for the "Modern Era" (2009-) looks like this:

The data summary since the inception of the league looks like this:

There have been 70 total 1st round picks in league history, and here's how they broke down:

QB: 29, RB: 28, WR: 3. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees have all been selected in the first round 5 times. Adrian Peterson and Tony Romo were selected 4 times. Only LT and Aaron Rodgers were selected 3 times.

As for our personal tastes, ARB drafted Peyton Manning three times. Several players have taken the same player twice: BEN, Aaron Rodgers; JBF, Tony Romo; SKC, Carson Palmer; and SKR, Adrian Peterson. No wide receiver has been taking in the first round of the modern era.

A cursory glance at the modern era statistics indicate what we pretty much knew already: Mrs. F likes GMF, SKC, and BEN, but does not care for ARB or MMB. RER was a wildcard his first two years, but it seems like he's made a strong impression in the last twelve months.

Does draft position correlate with points scored? Wins? Playoffs?

Is it better to be last and get back to back picks? Which position is statistically "worst"?

Those, my darlings, are questions for another day.

I'm gonna go have a drink and try to pretend that Mrs. F isn't actively plotting my demise.

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